Question

Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?

Resolved :No80%

209 comments209

Total Forecasters236

Community Prediction80% (75% - 88%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-178.8

Community Peer Score

14.2

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Authors:

ignorance.prior

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

COVID-19 Rates Are Strangely Low This Holiday Season

Time•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Will an mRNA vaccine target the norovirus strain behind surging cases?

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

50%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ignorance.prior

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

COVID-19 Rates Are Strangely Low This Holiday Season

Time•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Will an mRNA vaccine target the norovirus strain behind surging cases?

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

50%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?

Make a Prediction

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?