Question

How many communist states will there be in 2050?

43 comments43

Total Forecasters94

Community Prediction4.88 (2.93 - 7.72)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

2.934

4.88

7.716

5.8%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

shibboleth

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Politics

People's Liberation Army

Cuba

Vietnam

Laos

Republic of Cuba (1902–1959)

Communist Party of Peru – Red Fatherland

Paraguayan People's Army

North Korea

China Map Shows Nuclear Missile Silo Locations

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Elderly Tyrant Raul Castro Pounds Table in Anger at Cuban Communists’ Incompetence

Breitbart•Dec 21, 2024

Communism, evil as ever, still carries elite cred — and sparks violent hate

New York Post•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?

20%

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

2099-03-14

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

38%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

shibboleth

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Politics

People's Liberation Army

Cuba

Vietnam

Laos

Republic of Cuba (1902–1959)

Communist Party of Peru – Red Fatherland

Paraguayan People's Army

North Korea

China Map Shows Nuclear Missile Silo Locations

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Elderly Tyrant Raul Castro Pounds Table in Anger at Cuban Communists’ Incompetence

Breitbart•Dec 21, 2024

Communism, evil as ever, still carries elite cred — and sparks violent hate

New York Post•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?

20%

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

2099-03-14

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

38%

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How many communist states will there be in 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

Comments

Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?