Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the Italian constitutional referendum pass?

Resolved :No33%
5
6
Total Forecasters44
Community Prediction33% (28% - 44%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 33%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
40.2
Community Peer Score
4.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
muzzle
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2016 Leaderboard
Italian Parliament
Brexit
2016 Italian constitutional referendum
Matteo Renzi
Five Star Movement
Italy women's national football team

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