Question

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction2029-12-17

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-02-25

...

2026-06-21 06:43

2029-12-17 12:43

2035-06-03 23:30

2.4%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2045-04-22

How much global warming by 2100?

2.95

Comments

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest year on record, scientists say

USA Today•Nov 11, 2024

2024 set to be hottest year on record as temperatures breach 1.5C threshold

Independent•Nov 11, 2024

The world has ALREADY exceeded the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, study warns - and scientists say time is running out to curb climate change

Daily Mail•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2045-04-22

How much global warming by 2100?

2.95