Question

When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?

Resolved :Mar 15, 2020

23 comments23

Total Forecasters72

Community Prediction2020-03

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2020-05

...

2020-03

0.1%

What was the final result?Mar 15, 2020

Authors:

DragonGod

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

World Health Organization

Mainland China

Johns Hopkins University

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

2026-08

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

18%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DragonGod

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

World Health Organization

Mainland China

Johns Hopkins University

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When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

2026-08

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

18%

MetaculusM

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When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?

Make a Prediction

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

Comments

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?