Question

Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?

Resolved :Yes

59 comments59

Total Forecasters130

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

74.4

Community Peer Score

3.5

median 95.0%mean 91.9%

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Hastings-on-Hudson, New York

New York (state)

Epidemiology

New York City

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

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