Question

Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?

Resolved :Yes95%

59 comments59

Total Forecasters130

Community Prediction95% (90% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

74.4

Community Peer Score

3.5

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Hastings-on-Hudson, New York

New York (state)

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Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Hastings-on-Hudson, New York

New York (state)

Epidemiology

The bird flu outbreak keeps getting more worrying

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?