Question

Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?

Resolved :Ambiguous

60 comments60

Total Forecasters96

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 30.0%mean 33.1%

Authors:

alphagrue

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

46%

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

2030-04-04

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

alphagrue

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Tesla is unveiling its long-awaited robotaxi amid doubts about the technology it runs on

Associated Press•Oct 10, 2024

Tesla to Unveil Long-Awaited Robotaxi

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

Elon Musk’s Tesla rolls out robotaxis in gamble on ‘black box’ AI tech amid safety concerns

New York Post•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

46%

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

2030-04-04

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

22%