Question

When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?

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Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction2025-05

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<2020-06

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01

...

0.2%

2024-09

2025-05

2026-01

2.9%

Authors:

Massimog

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Sports & Entertainment

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

2035-10

What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?

235

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Massimog

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Sports & Entertainment

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

2035-10

What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?

235

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?

Comments

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?