Question

Will recounts appreciably change US presidential vote count?

Resolved :No35%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction35% (11% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

45.9

Community Peer Score

-4.6

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Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

US presidential election

Donald Trump

Pennsylvania

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.5%

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