Question

How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?

Resolved :3.66M3.56M

35 comments35

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction3.56M (3.44M - 3.68M)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<3M

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>5M

...

1.7%

3.443M

3.56M

3.68M

0.2%

What was the final result?3.66M

Community Baseline Score

60.3

Community Peer Score

13.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

ignorance.prior

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Social Sciences

2016-2025 Leaderboard

United States

National Center for Health Statistics

Immigration drives US population growth to highest rate in 23 years as residents pass 340 million

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

2019 U.S. Population Estimates Continue to Show the Nation’s Growth Is Slowing

•Dec 20, 2024

The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the US population be in these years?

341

What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?

2.77

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ignorance.prior

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Social Sciences

2016-2025 Leaderboard

United States

National Center for Health Statistics

Immigration drives US population growth to highest rate in 23 years as residents pass 340 million

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

2019 U.S. Population Estimates Continue to Show the Nation’s Growth Is Slowing

•Dec 20, 2024

The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the US population be in these years?

341

What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?

2.77

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

12%

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How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?

Make a Prediction

What will the US population be in these years?

What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

Comments

What will the US population be in these years?

What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

What will the US population be in these years?

What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

What will the US population be in these years?

What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?