Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

We're considering changes to the Quarterly Cup and want to hear from you, take our short survey to share your thoughts and help shape future iterations of the Cup.

MetaculusM

Question

When will China legalise same-sex marriage?

15

Total Forecasters79

Community Prediction2043-01-12 (2032-07-21 - 2075-01-15)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

...

...

...

2032-07-21 02:12

2043-01-12 22:36

2075-01-15 08:02

18.2%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

National People's Congress

Japan’s ban on recognizing same-sex unions is unconstitutional, a court finds. Here’s what to know

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Nicola Sturgeon rues descent into ‘toxic’ debate on topics such as equal marriage

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

China extends visa-free transit policy to 10 days as part of efforts to lure more foreign tourists

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

National People's Congress

Japan’s ban on recognizing same-sex unions is unconstitutional, a court finds. Here’s what to know

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Nicola Sturgeon rues descent into ‘toxic’ debate on topics such as equal marriage

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

China extends visa-free transit policy to 10 days as part of efforts to lure more foreign tourists

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch