Question

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction2028-06

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<2020-12

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-12

...

2.6%

2025-11

2028-06

2033-03

7.4%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AIDS in the United States

Biology

Medicine

Immunology

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

77%

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

32%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AIDS in the United States

Biology

Medicine

Immunology

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Guardian•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

77%

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

32%

MetaculusM

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When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Comments

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?