Question

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction2028-06-10 (2025-11-23 - 2033-03-19)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<2020-12-29

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-12-29

...

2.6%

2025-11-23 20:14

2028-06-10 03:44

2033-03-19 17:26

7.4%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AIDS in the United States

Biology

Medicine

Immunology

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

A Cancer-Causing Virus Hiding in Millions of Americans

New Yorker•Dec 18, 2024

Incurable, 'highly contagious' STD affects nearly 900 million people under age 50

FOX News•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

33%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AIDS in the United States

Biology

Medicine

Immunology

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

A Cancer-Causing Virus Hiding in Millions of Americans

New Yorker•Dec 18, 2024

Incurable, 'highly contagious' STD affects nearly 900 million people under age 50

FOX News•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

33%

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When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Comments

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?