Question

What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?

Resolved :5.02k4.94k

29 comments29

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction4.94k (4.34k - 5.13k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>6k

...

0.4%

4.337k

4.94k

5.126k

3.3%

What was the final result?5.02k

Community Baseline Score

-3.9

Community Peer Score

20.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Seattle Police Department

Outgoing Washington governor suggests ‘wealth tax’ to avoid cuts to education and police

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

Retail theft surges 93% since before COVID-19 pandemic: 'Retailers have not been crying wolf'

FOX News•Dec 19, 2024

Retail theft surges 93% since before COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Retailers have not been crying wolf’

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Seattle Police Department

Outgoing Washington governor suggests ‘wealth tax’ to avoid cuts to education and police

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

Retail theft surges 93% since before COVID-19 pandemic: 'Retailers have not been crying wolf'

FOX News•Dec 19, 2024

Retail theft surges 93% since before COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Retailers have not been crying wolf’

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?

Make a Prediction

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

Comments

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0