Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?

Resolved :5.02k4.94k
6
29
Total Forecasters48
Community Prediction4.94k (4.34k - 5.13k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<1k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>6k
...
...
...
...
...
0.4%
4.337k
4.94k
5.126k
3.3%

What was the final result?5.02k

Community Baseline Score
-3.9
Community Peer Score
20.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
ought
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Politics
Health & Pandemics
2020 Leaderboard
Washington (state)
Stay-at-home order
Seattle Police Department
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

Comments

? comments