Question

What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction10.8k (10k - 29.5k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	<10k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>100M
community	47.1%	<10k	10.77k	29.53k	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<10k	47.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	<10k	—
median	10.77k	—
upper 75%	29.53k	—
Upper bound
>100M	0.3%	—

Authors:

NoUsernameSelected

Opened:

Apr 17, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2074

Social Sciences

Geopolitics

Antarctica

Demographics of Antarctica

Antarctic Treaty System

15% of global population lives within a few miles of a coast − and the number is growing rapidly

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Scientists May Have Been Wrong About 'Doomsday Glacier'

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

World's sea ice plunges to a record LOW: Shocking maps reveal how the North and South Poles are both missing thousands of miles of ice

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years?

18.3

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

2.29

What will be the peak human population before 2100?

9.96B

Comments

? comments