Question

Will the next US recession turn into a depression?

Resolved :No8%

40 comments40

Total Forecasters175

Community Prediction8% (3% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

21.5

Community Peer Score

18.8

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Apr 7, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2027

Economy & Business

United States

Real gross domestic product

Great Depression in the US

Great Depression

Is The US Economy Slowing? How Might US Trade Be Impacted?

Forbes•Feb 15, 2025

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

China’s Economic Crisis Is Tracking Japan’s Downturn In The 1990’s

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

0.423

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

23%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Apr 7, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2027

Economy & Business

United States

Real gross domestic product

Great Depression in the US

Great Depression

Is The US Economy Slowing? How Might US Trade Be Impacted?

Forbes•Feb 15, 2025

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

China’s Economic Crisis Is Tracking Japan’s Downturn In The 1990’s

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

0.423

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

23%