Question

When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?

Resolved :Dec 15, 20212023-07-18

24 comments24

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction2023-07-18 (2022-06-06 - 2024-12-16)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2024-12-31

...

2022-06-06 18:58

2023-07-18 11:52

2024-12-16 23:51

24.2%

What was the final result?Dec 15, 2021

Community Baseline Score

-14.7

Community Peer Score

49.6

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economy & Business

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Unemployment in the US

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

Federal Reserve Eyes Slower 2025 Rate Cuts

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

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Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?

0.1%

Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?

39%

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