Question

When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters215

Community Prediction2026-11-02 (2024-07-06 - 2030-05-10)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2024-07-06 18:56

2026-11-02 04:41

2030-05-10 10:34

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 31, 2016

Closes:

Jan 2, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2040

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

To Interact With the Real World, AI Will Gain Physical Intelligence

Wired•Jan 26, 2025

You and the Machine: The Problem of a Foreign Workforce Is Just the Beginning of American's Labor Woes

Red State•Jan 28, 2025

AI Will Be Smarter Than Your Kids. Here’s What To Do

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a robot available for sale to the general public which can reliably and safely change an infant human diaper unassisted?

2040-06-11

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 31, 2016

Closes:

Jan 2, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2040

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

To Interact With the Real World, AI Will Gain Physical Intelligence

Wired•Jan 26, 2025

You and the Machine: The Problem of a Foreign Workforce Is Just the Beginning of American's Labor Woes

Red State•Jan 28, 2025

AI Will Be Smarter Than Your Kids. Here’s What To Do

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a robot available for sale to the general public which can reliably and safely change an infant human diaper unassisted?

2040-06-11

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

25%