Question

When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?

Total Forecasters216

Community Prediction2026-10-10 (2024-09-13 - 2029-12-30)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	Sep 2024	Oct 2026	Dec 2029
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Sep 2024	—
median	Oct 2026	—
upper 75%	Dec 2029	—

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 31, 2016

Closes:

Jan 2, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2040

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Evolving Landscape of White-Collar Jobs: The Impact of AI and Affordable Labor

Townhall•Mar 1, 2025

A robot nearly headbutted a festival spectator in China

AlterNet•Mar 4, 2025

The Robots Are Coming for Your Job Sooner Than You Think: AI Researcher

Newsweek•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a robot available for sale to the general public which can reliably and safely change an infant human diaper unassisted?

2040-04-20

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 31, 2016

Closes:

Jan 2, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2040

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Evolving Landscape of White-Collar Jobs: The Impact of AI and Affordable Labor

Townhall•Mar 1, 2025

A robot nearly headbutted a festival spectator in China

AlterNet•Mar 4, 2025

The Robots Are Coming for Your Job Sooner Than You Think: AI Researcher

Newsweek•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a robot available for sale to the general public which can reliably and safely change an infant human diaper unassisted?

2040-04-20

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

25%