Question

When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

Resolved :Jan 30, 20212021-02-02

239 comments239

Total Forecasters272

Community Prediction2021-02-02 (2021-01-20 - 2021-02-17)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2023-04-08

...

2021-01-20 05:23

2021-02-02 02:09

2021-02-17 10:15

0.2%

What was the final result?Jan 30, 2021

Community Baseline Score

45.2

Community Peer Score

35.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

juancambeiro

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Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

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