Question
When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
Resolved :Jan 30, 20212021-02-02Total Forecasters272
Community Prediction2021-02-02 (2021-01-20 - 2021-02-17)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 20 Jan 2021 | — |
| median | 02 Feb 2021 | — |
| upper 75% | 17 Feb 2021 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2023-04-08 | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?Jan 30, 2021
Community Baseline Score
45.2
Community Peer Score
35.2
Authors:
Opened:Apr 11, 2020
Closes:Apr 8, 2021
Resolves:Apr 8, 2021
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 11, 2020
Closes:Apr 8, 2021
Resolves:Apr 8, 2021