Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?

Resolved :Yes99%
9
18
Total Forecasters112
Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
31.5
Community Peer Score
27.3
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2020 Leaderboard
European Commission
European Union
Biotechnology
Public health
RNA vaccine
COVID-19
EMA
Epidemiology
Food and Drug Administration

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