Question

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

98 comments98

Total Forecasters397

Community Prediction54% (29% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 54%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Fail-safes in nanotechnology

Superintelligence

Pharmacology

Medicine

Beyond the Cognitive Horizon

Psychology Today•Dec 11, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Fail-safes in nanotechnology

Superintelligence

Pharmacology

Medicine

Beyond the Cognitive Horizon

Psychology Today•Dec 11, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?