Question

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

98 comments98

Total Forecasters396

Community Prediction52.8%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 52.8%

median 52.8%mean 52.3%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Fail-safes in nanotechnology

Superintelligence

Pharmacology

Medicine

How AI Is Redefining Our Understanding of Risk | Opinion

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

A Roadmap to AI Utopia

Time•Nov 12, 2024

AI Can Save Humanity—Or End It

Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Fail-safes in nanotechnology

Superintelligence

Pharmacology

Medicine

How AI Is Redefining Our Understanding of Risk | Opinion

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

A Roadmap to AI Utopia

Time•Nov 12, 2024

AI Can Save Humanity—Or End It

Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%