Question

How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?

Resolved :310

10 comments10

Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction265

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<235

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>450

...

5.7%

256.5

265.3

283.6

0.7%

What was the final result?310

Community Baseline Score

15.9

Community Peer Score

5.4

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

LessWrong

How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?

When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?

2025-04-04

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

LessWrong

A Nobel Prize for Artificial Intelligence

Atlantic•Oct 9, 2024

Anthropic’s CEO has many, many, many thoughts about AGI.

Verge•Oct 12, 2024

Anthropic CEO goes full techno-optimist in 15,000-word paean to AI

TechCrunch•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?

When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?

2025-04-04

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.6