🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?

Resolved :72.5k68.1k
11
34
Total Forecasters98
Community Prediction68.1k (60.3k - 78.1k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>300k
...
...
...
...
60.31k
68.11k
78.06k
0.4%

What was the final result?72.5k

Community Baseline Score
74.8
Community Peer Score
9.4
Authors:
dan
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
2020 Leaderboard
Public health
United States
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

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