🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?

Resolved :May 9, 20202020-05-04
9
51
Total Forecasters77
Community Prediction...

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<2020-04-30
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2020-06-15
...
...
...
...
...
29.4%
<2020-04-30 00:00
2020-05-04 23:55
2020-05-13 11:17
2.3%

What was the final result?May 9, 2020

Community Baseline Score
12.6
Community Peer Score
40.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
dan
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
2020 Leaderboard
New York City
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

Comments

? comments