📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?

Resolved :Yes99%
22
113
Total Forecasters217
Community Prediction99% (98% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
46.9
Community Peer Score
19.1
Authors:
Pshyeah
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2020 Leaderboard
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Epidemiology

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