Question

What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction165

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100k

...

120.3

165.5

410.2

2.9%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Philosophy

Nick Bostrom

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

Real gross domestic product

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?

10.8

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological humans only)?

30.7k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Philosophy

Nick Bostrom

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

Real gross domestic product

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

A Roadmap to AI Utopia

Time•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?

10.8

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological humans only)?

30.7k