Question

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters126

Community Prediction1% (1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

doot

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nobel Prize in Physics

Three American Scientists Honored With The Enrico Fermi Presidential Award

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

This Year’s Nobel Prizes Are a Warning about AI

Scientific American•Dec 21, 2024

Geoffrey Hinton Has Used His Nobel Prize Winnings to Create a New Award for A.I.

Observer (NY)•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

13%

Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?

7.5%

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

doot

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nobel Prize in Physics

Three American Scientists Honored With The Enrico Fermi Presidential Award

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

This Year’s Nobel Prizes Are a Warning about AI

Scientific American•Dec 21, 2024

Geoffrey Hinton Has Used His Nobel Prize Winnings to Create a New Award for A.I.

Observer (NY)•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

13%

Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?

7.5%

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

Comments

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?