Question

Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction28.4% (21% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28.4%

Authors:

nagolinc

Opened:

Jul 6, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2032

Geopolitics

Mainland China

Sixth National Population Census of the People's Republic of China

United States

Foreign policy of Xi Jinping

Census-designated place

China’s Biggest-Ever Bid for Foreign Tourists Is Falling Flat

Bloomberg•Jan 21, 2025

Warning Issued on 'Population Collapse' by 2100

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Runner-Up: China May Have to Settle for Second Place Behind America

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will China's total population be in these years?

1.36B

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

12%

How high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?

66.2

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