Question

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction2026-05

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01

...

2025-03

2026-05

2028-07

17.2%

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

ArXiv

Artificial intelligence

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-10

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

2029-06

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

2025-06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

ArXiv

Artificial intelligence

AI and the Human Mind: Uncovering the Machine "Unconscious"

Psychology Today•Oct 1, 2024

Why is ChatGPT so bad at math?

TechCrunch•Oct 2, 2024

AIs are more likely to mislead people if trained on human feedback

New Scientist•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-10

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

2029-06

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

2025-06

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When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

Comments

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?