Question

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction2026-03-30 (2025-04-09 - 2028-05-30)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2030-01-01
community	Apr 2025	Mar 2026	May 2028	14.0%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Apr 2025	—
median	Mar 2026	—
upper 75%	May 2028	—
Upper bound
>2030-01-01	14.0%	—

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

May 2, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

Are AI Outputs Rational or Not?

Psychology Today•Mar 4, 2025

Amazon is working on a new 'reasoning' AI model that competes with OpenAI and Anthropic

Business Insider•Mar 4, 2025

The AI Future Is Here

Scientific American•Mar 4, 2025

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