Question

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters66

Community Prediction2026-05-03 (2025-04-21 - 2028-09-25)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01-01

...

2025-04-21 14:32

2026-05-03 05:58

2028-09-25 11:45

15.0%

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Authors:

jacob.pfau

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AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

Google releases its own ‘reasoning’ AI model

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI Upgrades Its Smartest AI Model With Improved Reasoning Skills

Wired•Dec 21, 2024

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2029-06-29

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

2025-07-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

Google releases its own ‘reasoning’ AI model

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI Upgrades Its Smartest AI Model With Improved Reasoning Skills

Wired•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-05-24

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

2029-06-29

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

2025-07-27

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When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

Comments

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?