🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?

Resolved :1.15M1.15M
12
27
Total Forecasters110
Community Prediction1.15M (1.13M - 1.17M)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<1M
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.2M
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
1.13M
1.15M
1.167M
6.6%

What was the final result?1.15M

Community Baseline Score
50.3
Community Peer Score
18.6
Authors:
dan
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
2020 Leaderboard
Public health
United States
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

Comments

? comments