Question

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction1.34 (1.07 - 2.76)

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>100

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1.074

1.338

2.763

1.0%

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Authors:

jacob.pfau

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AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Turing test

Allen Institute for AI

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

Oren Etzioni

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.1

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.2

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-04-26

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