Question

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction1.37

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100

...

1.081

1.368

2.909

1.0%

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Turing test

Allen Institute for AI

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

Oren Etzioni

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-14

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Turing test

Allen Institute for AI

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

Oren Etzioni

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-14