Question

Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction2.98 (2.94 - 2.99)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2.941	2.978	2.991
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2.941	—
median	2.978	—
upper 75%	2.991	—

Authors:

nagolinc

Opened:

Jun 20, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Space

Technology

SpaceX reusable launch system

A private spacecraft is about to land on the moon — the second in less than a week

NBC•Mar 6, 2025

Moon lander from Intuitive Machines ready for descent to lunar surface

CBS•Mar 6, 2025

Athena spacecraft lands on moon 100 miles from south pole after tense descent

Guardian•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

nagolinc

Opened:

Jun 20, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Space

Technology

SpaceX reusable launch system

A private spacecraft is about to land on the moon — the second in less than a week

NBC•Mar 6, 2025

Moon lander from Intuitive Machines ready for descent to lunar surface

CBS•Mar 6, 2025

Athena spacecraft lands on moon 100 miles from south pole after tense descent

Guardian•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?

2029-07-18

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.9

When will Artemis 3 successfully take astronauts to the Lunar Gateway?

2028-08-24