Question

Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

51.1

Community Peer Score

3.7

median 30.0%mean 30.7%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

Earthquake

California

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

22%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

Earthquake

California

A magnitude 6.2 earthquake strikes off Costa Rica’s Pacific coast, no serious damage reported

Associated Press•Oct 13, 2024

Map: 6.2-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Near Costa Rica

New York Times•Oct 13, 2024

California Atmospheric River Forecast: 'Big Changes' in Storm Path Expected

Newsweek•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

22%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%