Question

Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

51.1

Community Peer Score

3.7

median 30.0%mean 30.7%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

Earthquake

California

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

23.2%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

Earthquake

California

'Bomb Cyclone' Set To Explode off US West Coast

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Atmospheric River Risks Flash Flooding, Mudslides in California Burn Zones

Newsweek•Nov 19, 2024

Atmospheric River to Slam the Pacific Northwest and California

•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

23.2%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%