Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?

Resolved :5.85.83
8
20
Total Forecasters58
Community Prediction5.83 (5.79 - 6.05)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>7.5
...
...
...
...
5.788
5.832
6.05
1.8%

What was the final result?5.8

Community Baseline Score
64.7
Community Peer Score
43.3
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Natural Sciences
2020 Leaderboard
Earthquake
Physics
Geophysics
Earth science
Geology
California
Moment magnitude scale

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