Question

Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

61.9

Community Peer Score

16.7

median 22.0%mean 22.0%

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Comments

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