Question

Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

61.9

Community Peer Score

16.7

median 22.0%mean 22.0%

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

South China Sea Territorial Disputes

•Nov 11, 2024

territorial disputes in the South China Sea

•Nov 11, 2024

What is the South China Sea dispute?

•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%