Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

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M

Question

Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?

Resolved :No22%
10
2
Total Forecasters119
Community Prediction22% (10% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
61.9
Community Peer Score
16.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
paulgabrielsen
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Jim Mattis
Philippines v. China
Rex Tillerson
South China Sea
China
Philippines
Vietnam
Spratly Islands
Malaysia

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