Question

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction696

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<10

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>5k

...

3.4%

290

696

1.38k

4.1%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Astronomy

SpaceX Starship

SpaceX reusable launch system

Aerospace engineering

Super Heavy

Physics

Elon Musk

US Consumer Price Index

Falcon 9

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?

613

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

221k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Astronomy

SpaceX Starship

SpaceX reusable launch system

Aerospace engineering

Super Heavy

Physics

Elon Musk

US Consumer Price Index

Falcon 9

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?

613

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

221k

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

Make a Prediction

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

Comments

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?