Question

Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?

Resolved :No4%

9 comments9

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction4% (3% - 7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

86.1

Community Peer Score

15.0

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jun 19, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Geopolitics

Technology

2016-2025 Leaderboard

United States National Security Council

Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration

China

United States

Russia

North Korea Fires Hypersonic Missile in First Weapons Test of 2025

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Satellite Picture Shows China's Huge Nuclear Weapons Research Center

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Step inside the secret lab where America tests its nukes

NPR Online News•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments