Question

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction1.22k (438 - 3k)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3k

...

437.7

1.222k

>3k

28.0%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World population

Observable universe

Map Reveals States Driving Fastest Population Growth In Decades

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

The next massive volcanic eruption is coming. It will cause chaos the world is not prepared for

CNN•Dec 24, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

65.9%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments