Question

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction1.19k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3k

...

431.4

1.188k

>3k

26.1%

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World population

Observable universe

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

65.9%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

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Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World population

Observable universe

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Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

65.9%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%