Question

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction1.24k (451 - 3k)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3k

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451

1.241k

>3k

26.7%

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Jun 4, 2020

Closes:

Jan 21, 5025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 21, 5025

World population

Observable universe

Japan's Population Faces Extinction Amid Birth Rate Crisis

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Warning Issued on 'Population Collapse' by 2100

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

65.9%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Jun 4, 2020

Closes:

Jan 21, 5025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 21, 5025

World population

Observable universe

Japan's Population Faces Extinction Amid Birth Rate Crisis

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Warning Issued on 'Population Collapse' by 2100

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

65.9%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%