Question

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction1.14k

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3k

...

363.5

1.136k

27.4%

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World population

Observable universe

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

66%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

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Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World population

Observable universe

How Earth's Early Life Thrived amid Catastrophic Asteroid Impacts

Scientific American•Oct 22, 2024

Russian invasion sends Ukraine population plummeting by 10 million: UN

Al Jazeera•Oct 22, 2024

Ukraine's population has shrunk by 10 million since Russia first invaded, according to U.N. estimate

CBS•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

66%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%