Question

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction2.43M

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1B

...

423k

2.43M

19.2M

7.0%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Microsoft

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

4.13B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Microsoft

SoftBank to Invest $500M in OpenAI for the First Time—Is It Late to the Party?

Observer (NY)•Oct 1, 2024

Powering Data Centers Is A Herculean Task

Forbes•Oct 1, 2024

The Improvisational Nature of LLMs and Human Thought

Psychology Today•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

4.13B

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Make a Prediction

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Comments

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?