Question

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters139

Community Prediction7% (4% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

dan

Opened:

Jun 2, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2030

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

Technology

National Nuclear Security Administration

Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

United States

Trinity (nuclear test)

White Sands Missile Range

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Satellite Picture Shows China's Huge Nuclear Weapons Research Center

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Step inside the secret lab where America tests its nukes

NPR Online News•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

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