Question

Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?

Resolved :No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters105

Community Prediction76%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 76%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-88.8

Community Peer Score

25.3

median 76.0%mean 74.1%

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Academy Summer Series

Sports & Entertainment

Amazon (company)

J. K. Rowling

Harry Potter

Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?

25%

Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?

65%

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

2029-12-21

Comments

? comments

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Academy Summer Series

Sports & Entertainment

Amazon (company)

J. K. Rowling

Harry Potter

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?

25%

Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?

65%

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

2029-12-21