🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?

Resolved :33.11
21
88
Total Forecasters71
Community Prediction3.11 (2.88 - 4.15)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15
...
...
...
...
2.877
3.113
4.15
0.4%

What was the final result?3

Community Baseline Score
105.0
Community Peer Score
42.8
Authors:
krtnu
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economy & Business
Technology
2020 Leaderboard
SpaceX Starship
SpaceX reusable launch system
SpaceX

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