Question

How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?

Resolved :55

30 comments30

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction55.2

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2k

...

52.8

55.2

0.4%

What was the final result?55

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Infectious disease

2018 Équateur province Ebola outbreak

Mbandaka

Democratic Republic of the Congo

North Kivu

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.03

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

17%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Infectious disease

2018 Équateur province Ebola outbreak

Mbandaka

Democratic Republic of the Congo

North Kivu

Rwanda’s Marburg fever deaths rise to 11 as its source is still being investigated

Associated Press•Oct 3, 2024

Ebola-Like Marburg Virus Outbreak Kills 11 in Rwanda

Newsweek•Oct 4, 2024

Marburg virus deaths rise to 11 as source still being investigated

Independent•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.03

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

17%

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How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?

Make a Prediction

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?